Childhood Green Bay Packers Affiliation and Diminished Adult Socioeconomic Outcomes: A 22-Year Prospective Cohort Study of the Upper Midwest

This paper presents results from a 22-year prospective cohort study (n = 4,847) examining the association between self-identified childhood sports affiliation and adult socioeconomic outcomes in the Upper Midwest. Participants were recruited at ages 8–14 between 2003 and 2004 from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota, and followed across six measurement waves through 2025.

Controlling for parental income, parental educational attainment, urbanicity, and county fixed effects, we find that respondents who identified the Green Bay Packers as their primary childhood affiliation (Cohort A; n = 1,213) exhibited statistically significant and persistent differences across multiple adult outcomes relative to comparison cohorts, including a −$28,400 median annual household income differential at age 30 (95% CI [−$31,200, −$25,600]) and a 19.4 percentage-point lower rate of bachelor's-degree attainment by age 28. Additional outcomes — including owner-occupied housing, geographic mobility, and a composite measure of relationship stability — moved in the same direction at comparable magnitudes.

Observed associations were robust to a series of sensitivity analyses, including instrumental-variable specifications exploiting variation in regional broadcast coverage. We discuss potential mechanisms, including reduced geographic mobility and place-based labor market sorting, and outline several limitations of the present design.